Analysts explained the plans of the largest oil and gas companies with a good market situation and the desire to win the trust of shareholders
Seven of the largest Western oil and gas companies - BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Eni and Equinor - plan to buy back their shares for a total of $41 billion this year, the Financial Times writes, citing analysts' calculations.
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The investment company Bernstein Research estimates the total amount slightly lower - at $38 billion. However, the publication notes, this is a record amount since 2008, when companies bought back their shares for $46 billion. In 2014 (the last year when prices per barrel of oil exceeded $100 . - RBC) oil companies bought back their papers for $ 21 billion.
Analysts say that Shell is going to spend the most on share buybacks in 2022 - $12 billion. BP is in second place - about $6.5 billion. The rest of the companies will allocate from $2 to $6 billion for this.
Analysts explained these plans with a good market situation and the desire to win the trust of shareholders. “The sector is in better shape than it has been in a long time. Now the main question is the duration of this cycle,” said Biray Borkhataria, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. About $50 billion more these corporations are going to pay to shareholders in the form of dividends.
World prices for oil products continue to grow since the beginning of the year. This is happening against the backdrop of a recovery in demand after the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as an aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine. According to the International Monetary Fund, the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to higher energy costs for many countries, as well as to a longer period of elevated global inflation.
Earlier, Morgan Stanley predicted an increase in the price of Brent oil to $100 per barrel by the third quarter of this year (prior to this, the bank's experts assumed that by this time the price would rise only to $90). Among the reasons for a possible increase, experts cited a reduction in stocks and a projected decrease in supply due to insufficient investment in the sector as environmental initiatives move forward.
JPMorgan analysts assumed that world oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel. With this development, global economic growth could slow to 0.9% in the first half of 2022, and global inflation could exceed 7%.
Sources: Financial Times, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan
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